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Superforecasting
A rigorous exploration of how to make better predictions about the future through systematic thinking and evidence. Essential reading for anyone seeking to improve their judgment in an uncertain world.
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Thinking, fast and slow
Kahneman's foundational work on cognitive biases directly underpins Tetlock's approach to improving judgment and decision-making.
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The Signal and the Noise
Silver applies statistical reasoning to real-world prediction across politics and sports, showing how to separate signal from noise in forecasting.
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The Black Swan
Taleb explores how rare, high-impact events defy prediction, offering the counterpoint to systematic forecasting methods.
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Predictably Irrational
Ariely examines systematic irrationality in decision-making, the psychological obstacles that forecasters must overcome.
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Antifragile
Extends Taleb's thinking on uncertainty to show how to build systems that benefit from unpredictability rather than merely predict it.
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